PTA rose strongly after weak consolidation support

2022-07-26
  • Detail

PTA rose strongly after weak consolidation supported by upstream costs.

overview of PTA Market in January and March:

at the beginning of March (3.2-3.6), PTA maintained weak consolidation due to the negative decline of crude oil and the drag of weak fundamentals. Both the long and short sides are poised to shake on the 5700 front line and launch a fierce competition. On the whole, the reason why the market returned to the decline was mainly due to the strong wait-and-see sentiment in the downstream. Polyester enterprises were forced by the rising inventory and continued price reduction and promotion. The terminal weaving factory had high inventory and sales difficulties. The market was pessimistic about the future market

in the second week (3..13), ta0905 mainly maintained the consolidation pattern in the interval. There was relatively solid support at the lower 60 day moving average, while other moving averages coiled around each other, which had certain resistance to its upward movement. In terms of capital, the market transaction is relatively light, and the main capital lacks the desire to go long continuously. Looking at the whole fundamentals, it can be said that the long and short positions are intertwined. After the crude oil has fallen from high to low, it is dominated by low-level shocks, with great upward pressure. The market is changeable, and the direction is difficult to be clear. The PX price of raw materials also rises from time to time, and the current situation of weak downstream demand is difficult to change in the short term. Therefore, PTA is currently in a dilemma, and the long and short positions are in a period of contradiction, so it can only continue to consolidate in the stalemate

however, since the middle of March, the PTA trend has started to be strong, breaking through multiple resistance barriers above, closing up again and again, and the futures price has been rising all the way. On the upstream side, supported by favorable factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, the sharp rise of US stocks, the rebound in the seasonal consumption of gasoline in the United States, and OPEC's strict implementation of production quota expectations, NYMEX crude oil futures rose gratifying, and the top three broke out. Since February 19, the cumulative increase in oil prices has exceeded 26%. The PX price of raw materials stopped falling and stabilized under the influence of factors such as the introduction of the contract price and insufficient supply, and began to rise moderately. PTA is supported by upstream costs, and the price rises sharply

from the disk, the closing price of ta0905 increased by 794 yuan from 5734 yuan at the beginning of the month to 6528 yuan at the end of the month. From the perspective of after hours positions, the current main force will have a great impact on relevant industries. The contract will increase positions in large quantities. The long and short sides are in fierce competition, and the multi strategy has an advantage

Figure 1, Comparison chart of PTA futures data in March (09.3.2-09.3.27)

pta0905 main contract

unit

3.2

3.6

3.13

3.20

3.27

month on month closing price

yuan/ton

<5734

5718

5832

6364 years ago

6528

13.8%

position

hand

107664

97766

74050

81452

70808

-34.2%

trading volume

hand

291344

165260

120000

164000

180000

-38.1%

Figure 2, PTA inventory data trend chart of Zhengzhou exchange

Figure 2 shows PTA inventory data trend chart of Zhengzhou exchange. (picture source: Shenhua futures)

II. Fundamental analysis:

1. Macroeconomic situation:

in the first half of March, the futures market was dominated by horizontal oscillation, but this trend completely changed in late March. Due to the US Federal Reserve's nearly trillion dollar bond purchase plan and the impact of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing monetary policy, investors' risk aversion quickly cooled, resulting in a decline in the US dollar index since it reached a high of 89.62 on March 4, reaching a phased low of 82.63 on March 16. The international oil price quickly rose above US $50, and the highest was close to US $55/barrel; Accordingly, commodity prices rose across the board, and the CRB index, which reflects the overall trend of the commodity market, has risen by about 5.05% since March. Some analysts believe that the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has laid the foundation for the medium-term weakness of the US dollar index, and such dehumidification methods based on the US dollar index are difficult to make the dew point temperature in the box below 0 ℃ and the bulk commodities will be favored by investors. There is still room for commodity prices to rebound in the second quarter

however, the market is quite skeptical about how long the rise based on the weakening US dollar can last, because the global demand for raw materials has not improved significantly. The following trend confirmed the above doubts. When the US Treasury Department said it would buy toxic assets from banks and more economic reports stimulated the stock market to rise, commodities including gold began to turn downward. In particular, after the US stocks rose and fell in the week at the end of the month, and investors began to abandon high-yield currencies and flock to more risk averse US dollar assets, the US dollar index began to rebound continuously

note: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with their views or confirm the authenticity of their contents

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI