PTA rebound position of the hottest Mayer futures

2022-08-07
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Mayer Futures: PTA rebounded and the position increased

today, ta811 received strong support at 7250 yuan/ton, and rebounded 124 points with the sharp amplification of the position and trading volume

after the opening today, the position continued to increase, with a maximum increase of more than 15000 hands at about 2:40. Near the closing, intra day traders closed their positions on a large scale. At the closing, the position increased by 8266 hands to 45760 hands. The daily trading volume increased by 122000 to 229000. The increase in trading volume divided by the increase in position today is much greater than that in previous trading days, indicating that speculative funds are active today

analyzing today's rebound, I personally think there are three reasons

1. In September, in the low position, 811 fell rapidly with the help of the decline of oil price, the large

decline of external spot PTA and raw material px. Today, the oil price is close to $100. 1. How to install the concrete pressure testing machine? Yuan/barrel. The external raw material PX also stopped its decline today. The market's expectations for the continued decline of oil price and PX are weakened. Therefore, after continuous sharp falls, the market has more reason to choose to rebound

2, 811 the lower position makes it easier for PTA prices to fluctuate. In September, although the price of ta811 fell continuously, the position remained at about 30000 hands, with no obvious increase. At a low position, the inertia of the market trend is small, and it is more vulnerable to the impact of external capital inflows

3. Comparative effect. The lowest price of PTA futures on the November contract was 7200 yuan/ton in late October 2007, while the international oil price and raw material PX price at that time were far lower than the current level. Compared with the current oil price/px price and the current oil price/px price, the futures price is close to the previous low. The market will think that the current 811 price is oversold

what will happen in the late 811 period? I have the following analysis:

1. I think that under the condition that the current fundamentals have not changed much compared with this time last year, the trend in the later stage of 811 is still closely related to the oil price. The main characteristics of the oil price are that the oil price is stabilized near 100 dollars/barrel, and 811 has a high probability of continuing to rebound. If the oil price falls below 100 dollars/barrel, 811 will choose to continue to decline. So far, I personally think that it is still very likely that the oil price will fall below 100 dollars in these days, Of course, we should pay attention to the impact of another hurricane

2. Secondly, it is closely related to how the main force handles the 200000 tons of spot delivered on 809. If 811 continues to rebound, the multi main force on

809 will have a choice to deal with the 200000 tons of spot it receives. In this sense, it is more likely that 811 will continue to rebound, but the possibility of reversal will not exist

3. Of course, it also has something to do with whether the position in the late 811 period continues to expand. After all, a large position will make the futures price trend stable. From the current position of more than 45000 hands, the current price is still unable to withstand the impact of external funds. Only from this point of view, 811 still faces great fluctuation risk

based on the above analysis, I believe that 811 will face fierce competition for long and short positions around 7500 yuan/ton. Due to the increased involvement of external funds, it cannot stretch freely and quickly, and the volatility in the later stage will be greater

I hope the above analysis can enlighten PTA investors and traders

note that the vacuum insulation board not only has high tightening strength: the reprinted contents are indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its contents

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