The hottest consumption leads to the intervention

2022-07-23
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Consumption led intervention in the weak period heavy inventory weighed on the price of natural rubber since the seasonal upsurge of domestic natural rubber demand in October, with the completion of orders by domestic tire export enterprises, a new round of consumption led intervention in the weak period. In particular, the lower prices since the third and fourth quarters have strengthened the wait-and-see efforts of purchasing enterprises, and the on-demand purchasing behavior has become the mainstream. In Shandong, the region with the largest demand for natural rubber in China, due to the sluggish sales, the operating rate of various factories has decreased significantly. A considerable number of enterprises have been on holiday and shut down. Even the operating rate of production enterprises is only 50% to 70%. Despite the demand, considering the instability of raw material prices, the market has a strong idea of buying up rather than buying down. Only around the beginning of December, the periodic rebound of prices began to have a small peak of purchasing, and then the market psychology fell to the bottom again. At present, the operation of rubber trading companies in Qingdao is very poor, which weakens the driving force of price cycle

with the increase of registered warehouse receipts in the market, it will directly test the receiving capacity of the futures and Jiaotong parties Operating environment: the normal operation on ordinary computers and the ability of the air side to continuously provide goods will ultimately determine the price trend. Since October, the market demand has weakened, while the total domestic production of natural rubber has continued to increase. A considerable amount of physical goods have been converted into futures inventory. Within two months, the inventory has more than doubled, reaching nearly 60000 to 5000 tons until the test pieces are crushed. This is basically consistent with the price change process between 21000 and 17000 points of Shanghai Jiao. The hedging pressure is very heavy, and the sellers have adopted the operation mode of locking profits. According to the data learned by the author from Qingdao International Rubber trading market, the pressure on imported rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has not decreased but increased compared with October. At least 20000 tons of physical goods have been deposited in the zone, which shows that social inventory is also under heavy pressure

note: the source of this reprint is indicated. The reprint is for the purpose of passing on more information. It does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms the authenticity of its contents at the end of last year

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